Lu Zhonglin: It is the general trend for N-type batteries to replace P-type batteries
On February 15th, the 2023 " Solar Energy Cup " New Year Sharing Conference and the 2022 10th Photovoltaic Industry Awards Ceremony hosted by Sobi Photovoltaic Network was grandly held at Shangri-La Hotel, Suzhou Industrial Park (GCL Plaza, Suzhou Industrial Park), Suzhou .
Lu Zhonglin , director and CTO of Xuhe Technology, attended the sub-forum of this year's "Solar Energy Cup" New Year's Sharing Session - Innovation Sharing Session , and shared the theme " N-Type TOPCon Battery - Opening the Door to Future Photovoltaics ".
Lu Zhonglin said that the structure of n-type TOPCon is similar to that of traditional PERC cells, which can maximize the use of existing cells and module equipment. At the same time, the high double-sided rate, premium capability and module power make its terminal profitability even better than that of PERC. Compared with other n-type battery products, TOPCon has the highest equipment maturity, relatively simple process, and cheap equipment price, which is conducive to large-scale promotion.
With the continuous implementation of n-type TOPCon's planned production capacity, the market share of TOPCon batteries will gradually increase; it is expected that by 2024, the market share of TOPCon batteries will exceed that of PERC batteries, and it will become the absolute mainstream after 2025.
The following is a transcript of the on-site speech:
This is my first public appearance as a representative of a new project. Later, I will introduce the new project I am working on and our progress.
Today's topic is that N-type TOPCon batteries open the door to the future. This is a propositional composition. I will be more concerned later, and compare related technologies, including N-type and other technologies, and share my own knowledge.
First of all, let me talk about the future of energy. Every time I give a report, I always talk about photovoltaics as a supplementary energy source. Now I am proud to say that photovoltaics is the leading energy source in the future.
Carbon neutrality By 2060, no country has yet achieved carbon neutrality. The fastest is the Nordic country, which says that it will achieve a carbon neutral country by 2035. All developed provinces, including Jiangsu Province, may be five to ten years ahead of schedule. look.
Why I am proud to say that I have participated in many meetings of the Energy Bureau in the past. I often say that photovoltaics are a good supplementary energy source, and now they are an alternative energy source. To achieve carbon neutrality and carbon peaking is the share of renewable clean energy. To achieve carbon neutrality, the combined wind power and photovoltaics must reach 80%, plus other clean energy sources account for a certain proportion, so I say that at present, it is very certain that other energy experts including coal and natural gas When communicating, PV is really very proud.
From the research reports of other research institutions, we can see that no matter the energy in the whole world, the orange one is the sun and wind power. In the next few decades, wind power and photovoltaic will become the main energy sources in the world. We It’s not just the air outlets that do new energy. The air outlets only last for a while, maybe three or two years, but it takes decades to be on an air channel, so sometimes we are very proud. We may focus on photovoltaics in our entire life without changing lines.
What is the problem with solar energy? There are daytime and nighttime, some places have good light, and some places have bad light. In fact, I have talked about a concept of the global Internet. I agree with it. Now we talk about the information Internet. I think the future It may be the global Internet of photovoltaics. If you look at it from a small scale, photovoltaics are unstable, and the weather in some places changes more, but from a large scale perspective, photovoltaic power generation is still very stable. If we say that the world builds an energy Internet, it can provide stable energy for the world regardless of day and night. Sometimes I think, the best energy storage plus energy Internet can be the best integrated energy solution for the whole world.
Let’s talk about the future of N-type TOPCon. Why some people say that many investment projects have appeared one after another. Many experts and investors in the industry have seen new opportunities, which are opportunities for technology iteration and product upgrades. It is the general trend that N-type replaces P-type. At present, the real mass production of the mainstream PERC value started in 2017 and 2018. It took two years to replace the aluminum back field. It has only been five or six years since it became the mainstream market. Photovoltaic is a cycle every five years. , so a new cycle has begun to break out again. Perhaps PERC has become a mainstream product. What will be the mainstream product in the future? There are several options, one is N_TOPCon battery, P-IBC, N-IBC, N-HJT, no matter Whether it is an N-type battery or a B-type battery, both can achieve the efficiency of mass production, but there are some differences in characteristics. I think it is necessary to talk about this matter from the perspective of LOCE, which is the best price/performance ratio for customers. From the perspective of cost, the most promising ones are TOPCon and IBC batteries. In theory, the cost of PERC can be achieved. I believe that there will be a greater degree of reduction in the future. Not only the efficiency will be increased by more than two points, but the cost can be approached now, and the tide can return in the future.
From the point of view of manufacture, TOPCon batteries and IBC batteries are almost as complicated as the manufacture of these types of batteries. In addition, HJT batteries are very simple to manufacture and have an almost symmetrical structure. The current investment may be the highest. , Still need a revolutionary thing in terms of equipment, including some materials.
Finally, I would like to talk about IBC. IBC is divided into P-type IBC. The leading companies have done a lot of technology. Easy, so I see that IBC batteries still have prospects in the future in terms of P-type and N-type. However, for N-type IBC batteries, there is an upgraded version of N-IBC batteries in China, but it is still too complicated and needs to be simplified. The simplified steps are only two more steps than PERC batteries.
Some people say that the TOPCon battery is an upgrade of PERC. I think there is half of the truth, but it is not entirely true. There are differences in many proprietary devices, and the mainstream is still the poly layer.
From the perspective of planned production capacity, there is no need to delve into these. Some are claimed, some are implemented, and some are divided into phases one, two, and three. But at present, the new production capacity basically has a mass production efficiency or target efficiency of 25%. Above, this is the first common point. Second, you can see that some IBCs are also making big plans. There are still relatively few in the market. Basically, everyone is investing in TOPCon. TOPCon’s expansion claims to be 400GW. When we talked with friends, this year More than 200GW has already landed.
According to our current statistical data, almost all of the expansions in the next two years will be N-type batteries, and the new production capacity will be mainly based on TOPCon. It took two to three years for PERC to replace the aluminum back field. Will N-type batteries become mainstream in two or three years?
This is LTPV statistical data. It may take two years for TOPCon to account for 30% of the market share this year. Next year, I estimate that it will exceed 60%. In the year after that, TOPCon is estimated to be our conventional battery.
Let’s talk about the future of technology, which is to reduce costs and improve efficiency to achieve higher cost performance. Everyone is working hard on TOPCon’s technical route. I think it’s very good, especially when it comes to the poly layer. In fact, each of these routes has its own strengths. The mainstream of the industry in the past was mainly the former friends. They mainly chose the technical route of LP. LP is done in a single difference method, but there are many problems. Manufacturers pay more attention to PE solutions. The main reason is that PV people are too familiar with PE, and the maturity rate is faster and the cost is lower. Currently, the double-difference solution is used. When mass production is feasible, it will be greatly upgraded. There is also the solution of PVD, and PVD has no winding plating.
In the future, the PECVD route should have a cost advantage of about 0.001 yuan/W compared with the original LPCVD single insertion. Before the LPCVD dual insertion matures, the market share of the PECVD route will gradually expand. After the LPCVD double insertion + forest expansion route is successfully promoted, LPCVDD + double insertion has a relatively obvious cost advantage.
When looking at the cost structure of the battery, sometimes it is particularly tangled. Everyone knows silicon. When I made this PPT, the silicon material was calculated according to 288. I can’t say the price of the silicon material. I personally think it is 70 or 80 yuan. It is more reasonable, but it can rise to more than 300 at once, which is more complicated. Aside from this factor, the decline and reduction in the thickness of the entire silicon wafer should be the driving force of the industry's technological progress on the one hand and cost reduction on the other. Now the thickness of TOPCon and N-type batteries has been reduced a lot, which may be related to our silicon materials, and finally it is cost-effective.
In terms of weightlessness, there are several technologies competing for slurry. This is also an important point in making N-type batteries. How much can TOPCon batteries do? This is related to electrical loss. In the future, it will definitely break through 26%. .